California Politics Sees New Winner: the North

By Jim Carlton at the Wall Street Journal, June 11, 2010

(The Bay Area is the main breeding ground for California RINOs,  just look at the discussion below. Having more and more successful candidates from RINO land may or may not be good for California and the conservative movement.)

SAN FRANCISCO—A big winner in this week’s primary was Northern California, where Silicon Valley’s growing clout is driving victories by homegrown candidates and sending a signal that the region has wrested control of statewide politics.

More than half the $21 million California Attorney General Jerry Brown has raised in his bid for governor has come from the northern half of the state, one of the Democrat’s fund-raisers estimates.

In almost every big statewide race, San Francisco Bay Area candidates have been dominant this year. Both main candidates for governor, Democrat Jerry Brown and the GOP’s Meg Whitman, have their political base in the Bay Area, as does the Republican Senate nominee, the former Hewlett-Packard Co. Chief Executive Carly Fiorina. Ms. Whitman, the former eBay Inc. chief, trounced fellow Silicon Valley billionaire Steve Poizner, while Ms. Fiorina defeated Tom Campbell, a former congressman who represented Silicon Valley.

Northern Forces Dominate State Politics…

United Press photo International

Sen. Barbara Boxer

Associated Press

Attorney General Jerry Brown

Reuters

Sen. Dianne Feinstein

Behind the North’s increasing political might, political observers said, is Silicon Valley’s growing position as one of California’s major economic engines.

“I think it’s a combination of luck of the draw with the maturity of the Silicon Valley phenomenon,” said Chuck DeVore, a state assemblyman from Orange County in the South who finished third in the GOP Senate contest behind Ms. Fiorina and Mr. Campbell. “The people who made their money there 10 years ago are of an age where they are more interested in politics,” he said.

The rise in northern power is especially remarkable, political observers said, given that two-thirds of California’s nearly 40 million residents live in the Los Angeles-San Diego urban corridor.

“We call it the revenge of the 650 area code,” said Dan Schnur, director of the Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics at the University of Southern California and chairman of the California Fair Political Practices Commission, referring to one of Silicon Valley’s main dialing codes.

For decades, the South has held sway over some of the state’s top political jobs. Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and his three predecessors in the statehouse have hailed from the Southland.

…as Southern California’s Clout Fades

Associated Press

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger

Associated Press

Former Gov. Pete Wilson

Associated Press

Former Gov. Gray Davis

The last Northern California governor was Mr. Brown, whose second term ended in 1983 before term limits were imposed that would have barred him from running again.

Northern California produced winners Tuesday in several other statewide races. San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom defeated Los Angeles City Attorney Janice Hahn in the Democratic primary for lieutenant governor; he will face Republican Abel Maldonado from Santa Maria in Central California. And San Francisco District Attorney Kamala Harris won the Democratic primary for state attorney general against a fellow Northern Californian, former Facebook Inc. chief privacy officer Chris Kelly. Ms. Harris will compete against Republican Los Angeles County District Attorney Steve Cooley in the fall.

Another factor behind the Northern California dominance is the decline of southern political powers like Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa. Once a shining star in the state’s Democratic Party, Mr. Villaraigosa has seen his stature wane, in part, after he admitted an extramarital affair in 2007.

And it might be that it is easier for a politician to stand out in the less-populated North, said Doug Bosco, a former congressman from Sonoma County north of San Francisco.

“People up north do know that [Sen.] Barbara Boxer came from here and that Dianne Feinstein was the mayor of San Francisco, whereas the Southland is a big melting pot where people’s identities get lost,” Mr. Bosco said.

The North’s political ascendancy has been accompanied by a decided northward shift in donations to statewide campaigns this year. Two-thirds of Mr. Campbell’s contributions, for example, were from Northern California, compared with the region’s normal share of donations for statewide races of about 20%, said Kristin Hueter, a Republican fund-raiser in Emeryville, Calif.

For the North, there is a clear benefit from the region’s growing influence on the political scene. “Northern California brings a different perspective to things,” said Richard Pombo, a former congressman from Tracy, Calif., who lost in his bid for the GOP nomination Tuesday in another Central Valley district. “For example, I think Northern California has a closer tie to agriculture than Southern California.”

The South could gain, as well. As the state’s less populous region, Northern California politicians will probably have to go out of their way to show they represent all Californians, which could help in addressing longstanding disputes over water and other issues, political observers said,

“It’s probably in some ways a good thing for Southern California, because whoever gets elected will have to spend time and resources in Southern California,” said Jerry Hallisey, a San Francisco attorney and fund-raiser for Mr. Brown’s campaign.

In fact, Mr. Campbell, the failed GOP Senate candidate, said he and his wife moved to the Orange County suburb of Irvine last year, in part, to learn more about Southern California in preparation for his run for office. Mr. Campbell took a leave as dean of the Haas School of Business at the University of California, Berkeley, to become visiting professor of economics and law at Chapman University in Orange County.

“It was important for me to get to know an area by living in it,” Mr. Campbell said in an interview before the election.

But his southern sojourn wasn’t enough to help Mr. Campbell in his Senate bid: He was defeated by fellow Silicon Valley VIP Ms. Fiorina by a 34-percentage-point margin.

Harmer Needs to Reach Out to CD 11 Voters

David Harmer’s got problems, and he’d better figure out how to join a team if he hopes to beat Jerry McNerney. The following analysis is spot on, and you’d better believe the Democrats are paying attention. There is no such thing as an imperial Congressman no matter what the Harmer people think. Was Harmer really the best we could do?

Whistling past the graveyard: In CA-11, Harmer touts independent turnout

 

by BGR at Halfway to Concord, June 15, 2010

Fresh from his campaign victory in the GOP Primary for California’s 11th Congressional District, the Harmer campaign is reading tea leaves 24×7 and throwing around some serious numbers. Republican David Harmer will face incumbent two-term Democrat Jerry McNerney in a district that has become a dead heat. But is Harmer whistling past the graveyard?

McNerney first came to office in a wave of anti-Bush (“W”) sentiment that benefitted from a smear of his Republican opponent, Richard Pombo. Thousands of eco-friendly Democrat activists were busloaded in to work for McNerney’s inaugural victory in 2006. Then in 2008, McNerney was swept back to D.C. on the coattails of Obama mania. But these gifts from the fickle gods of politics are not likely to fall from the sky again, especially as an anti-incumbent mood wends it way into the November 2010 election season.

In a recent e-mail blast, the Harmer camp says that their guy has a leg up on McNerney because:

1. Republicans outcast Democrats by 14,000 ballots

2. Decline-to-State, independent voters chose to participate more heavily in the Republican primary than in the Democrat primary

3. David Harmer is the son of a Lt Governor under Reagan.

According to Mark Twain, everyone knows that in politics there are “lies, damned lies, and statistics.” And the Harmer spinster brain trust, led by campaign wrangler Tim Clark, appears to be dead on track as they offer up some serious fairy dust. For in reality, Harmer’s numbers don’t exactly add up; here’s why:

1. Any 3rd grader, even a few Republicans, would understand that the Democratic Party Primary would produce an under vote simply from the fact that incumbent McNerney, ran unopposed.

2. The final field in the Republican Primary offered four strong candidates, including Harmer, Brad Goehring, Elizabeth Emken, and Tony Amador. Each of these candidates offered their own appeal that was able to reach far beyond the ingrown, political DNA the GOP usually invites to their Geritol chugging raves at Tom’s house. So an increase in DTS voters in the GOP primary is hardly a surprise, or news!

3. Of the 52,228 votes cast in the Republican primary, not all were for Harmer (just 37%). So any claim that Harmer somehow owns the district is hyperbole.

4. In fact, Harmer only attracted 19,235 of those votes. So, especially in a field of four, Harmer hardly can be considered a true majority winner. In fact, of the 52,228 votes, 63% of Republican voters cast their ballot AGAINST Harmer, not for him.

This is hardly the stuff of a compelling campaign message. Maybe there will be Republican candidates that will focus on the issues instead of spinning damned lies as statistics.

Stay tuned for more twisted tales from both camps as the November contest approaches.

Technorati Tags: CD 11,David Harmer

GOP Opens Lead in Generic Ballot

by Daniel Foster at National Review Online

Via CQ Politics, the latest Gallup poll has Republicans leading Democrats 49 percent to 43 percent on a generic ballot. That is the largest lead Republicans have enjoyed since the poll started in 1950.

But at the same time, Charlie Cook has moved prize Senate seats in Connecticut and New York a little further out of reach.

Every primary day, every special election, every poll I see reminds me of one thing: November is a long way away.

Denham Death Throws II

A few days have gone by, and it’s getting really hard watching the Denham campaign wallow in the tar pits, unable to pull itself out before sinking into oblivion.

The next phase isn’t just about Jeff Denham’s public self-immolation, but actually illegalities. See the full story here at Right On Daily.

The voters in CD 19 need to wake up to the reality of Denham’s practical and legal problems. He’s a RINO from the start, and not even as clever as the Democrats when it comes to the whole using public money for political gain thing. Throw the bum out on his tin ear.

Governor’s Race Meltdown

Someone wondered recently if Meg could spend enough in the time left to squeak to a win. Well, if you get mail, you know she’s giving it her best! The Poizner hit pieces arriving daily are easy to produce, expensive, and starting to have an effect.

Anyone to knows Poizner’s record, knows he’s no life-long conservative. At best, his is a record any RINO could be proud of (at worst- treasonous to the cause of Constitutional republicanism). Meg is managing to put doubt into the minds of Republicans. But there is a problem- the same is true of the Meganator.

The biggest slice of Republican primary voters are undecided. In some years, that would be because voters just aren’t paying attention: school’s out, summer’s in, don’t bother me. This isn’t possible this year, the last of the California Condors knows that Meg and Steve are beating each other bloody for the right to loose to the Moonbeam.

Don’t tell the tea partiers, but some Republican stalwarts are saying “A plague o’ both your houses! I’m going to vote for the loony I know.”

Election Outcomes- Bad,  Badder, and Baddest     (or bad, worse, and worstest?)

BAD:   Poizner Becomes Governor

The Governor of California cannot solve the hole Californian’s have dug for themselves without an about face in the Legislature. It’s almost heretical to consider, but do Republicans really want to be the adults at this point? Won’t the kids just get mad? Isn’t it time to let the Democrats boil in their own stew?

BADDER :   Brown Becomes Governor Again

The damage we could expect from Brown would at least be held in check by the State’s finances. But there is an upside most people are not thinking about. Putting him back in office under these conditions would be one of the great sit-coms of all time, just imagine the political theater he’ll provide.  Plus there is a karmic justice to having Brown live with the results of his past actions. At least we will know at whom to through grenades (metaphorically) .

BADDEST: Whitman Becomes Governor

We’ve just lived through 6 years of Republican impotence. How can you be a loyal opposition Republican when the leader of your party is All But A Democrat (ABAD)? It’s up to every voter to determine if Meg’s election-time conversion to conservatism is anything but empty rhetoric. Ask yourself this question, could we be any worse off if we had kept Gray Davis in office? The same Wilsonites that brought you Schwarzenegger are behind Meg. Are they hopping for a new direction with Meg?

Man, the next couple weeks are going to be interesting.

Voting for Governor Now

The rumor mill is not saying good things about the Whitman campaign. Whispers are that even Meg’s highly paid mercenaries can’t bring themselves to tell her she is beating Poizner. No matter how they massage the data, she’s behind.

Keep in mind that while election day is June 8, the Election has already begun. Voters are receiving mail ballots right now. 50%-70%, depending on the district, will be cast by absentee voters.

Whitman has some time to try to convince Republicans she’s not a RINO, but it’s getting more and more difficult. She seems to be in the same boat as Harry Ried of Nevada, the more they spend, the lower the boat sinks.

The truth of the matter is, Poizner isn’t a solid conservative. He’s got RINO tendencies, and if he becomes Gov. we’re going to have hold his feet to the fire big time.

But Meg is a RINO with a proven record. Alert issued.

 

p.s. RINOs are on the chopping block in several states tomorrow. Follow up report on Wednesday