David Harmer’s got problems, and he’d better figure out how to join a team if he hopes to beat Jerry McNerney. The following analysis is spot on, and you’d better believe the Democrats are paying attention. There is no such thing as an imperial Congressman no matter what the Harmer people think. Was Harmer really the best we could do?
Whistling past the graveyard: In CA-11, Harmer touts independent turnout
by BGR at Halfway to Concord, June 15, 2010
Fresh from his campaign victory in the GOP Primary for California’s 11th Congressional District, the Harmer campaign is reading tea leaves 24×7 and throwing around some serious numbers. Republican David Harmer will face incumbent two-term Democrat Jerry McNerney in a district that has become a dead heat. But is Harmer whistling past the graveyard?
McNerney first came to office in a wave of anti-Bush (“W”) sentiment that benefitted from a smear of his Republican opponent, Richard Pombo. Thousands of eco-friendly Democrat activists were busloaded in to work for McNerney’s inaugural victory in 2006. Then in 2008, McNerney was swept back to D.C. on the coattails of Obama mania. But these gifts from the fickle gods of politics are not likely to fall from the sky again, especially as an anti-incumbent mood wends it way into the November 2010 election season.
In a recent e-mail blast, the Harmer camp says that their guy has a leg up on McNerney because:
1. Republicans outcast Democrats by 14,000 ballots
2. Decline-to-State, independent voters chose to participate more heavily in the Republican primary than in the Democrat primary
3. David Harmer is the son of a Lt Governor under Reagan.
According to Mark Twain, everyone knows that in politics there are “lies, damned lies, and statistics.” And the Harmer spinster brain trust, led by campaign wrangler Tim Clark, appears to be dead on track as they offer up some serious fairy dust. For in reality, Harmer’s numbers don’t exactly add up; here’s why:
1. Any 3rd grader, even a few Republicans, would understand that the Democratic Party Primary would produce an under vote simply from the fact that incumbent McNerney, ran unopposed.
2. The final field in the Republican Primary offered four strong candidates, including Harmer, Brad Goehring, Elizabeth Emken, and Tony Amador. Each of these candidates offered their own appeal that was able to reach far beyond the ingrown, political DNA the GOP usually invites to their Geritol chugging raves at Tom’s house. So an increase in DTS voters in the GOP primary is hardly a surprise, or news!
3. Of the 52,228 votes cast in the Republican primary, not all were for Harmer (just 37%). So any claim that Harmer somehow owns the district is hyperbole.
4. In fact, Harmer only attracted 19,235 of those votes. So, especially in a field of four, Harmer hardly can be considered a true majority winner. In fact, of the 52,228 votes, 63% of Republican voters cast their ballot AGAINST Harmer, not for him.
This is hardly the stuff of a compelling campaign message. Maybe there will be Republican candidates that will focus on the issues instead of spinning damned lies as statistics.
Stay tuned for more twisted tales from both camps as the November contest approaches.
